Albanese sets his sights on the United States | The Saturday Paper

Anthony Albanese was watching his treasurer, Jim Chalmers, on Sky News on Sunday morning when the interview was interrupted by a vision of a fist-pumping Donald Trump being whisked off the stage by the Secret Service at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Although it was not initially clear that shots had been fired, the prime minister described the images as “a great shock” and “very shocking”. As it emerged that one member of the public had been killed and two others seriously injured, Mr Albanese reflected that “American politics has become increasingly polarised”. He noted that the country had a history of violence.

As decency demands, Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong expressed relief at Trump’s survival and hopes for a speedy recovery, calling for “unity” and “calm” – even though Trump himself is almost certainly the most polarising figure on the planet and a leading exponent of violent political discourse.

In an op-ed, Albanese wrote that in a nation like Australia, “we resolve our differences at the ballot box and in conversations and debates that nurture our democracy.”

In his speech from the Oval Office, US President Joe Biden reiterated the same fundamental principle: “The power to change America must always rest in the hands of the people, not in the hands of a would-be assassin.”

The president detailed the violence in the United States that Albanese indirectly referenced. Among other heinous events, the president mentioned “a violent mob that attacked the Capitol on January 6.” That act of insurrection was instigated by Trump himself. He has not backed down from his justification that the last election was stolen, though a prosecutor has determined that he has a case to answer.

The prospects of a weak Biden blocking Trump for a second time seemed increasingly unlikely after his halting and sometimes incoherent debate with his Republican rival. They now look even grimmer.

Albanese and his ministers say the outcome of the presidential election is a matter for the American people, with the added proviso that they can work with whoever is elected. The enduring alliance, they say, is bigger than any one president or prime minister. Yet the risks to Australia if Trump wins cannot be overstated.

Allan Behm, an expert on international and security issues and a former senior adviser to the Rudd and Gillard governments, says the Australian government would be very nervous about the prospect of a Trump comeback. And he would not be alone. A key member of the Labour Party says the new Starmer government in Britain is preparing strategically, economically and environmentally for the impacts of Trump’s volatility.

There is much talk about the work that Ambassador Kevin Rudd is doing in Washington to establish channels of communication with the Trump team. Rudd already claims to have a “texting relationship” with the recently nominated vice presidential candidate, Senator JD Vance. Both have in common a past of disdain for Trump.

In 2016, Vance called Trump “a cynical moron” or “America’s Hitler” who was “unfit for our nation’s highest office.” Rudd, meanwhile, said last year that Trump was “the most destructive president in history” and “rancid.”

At the very least, Vance’s rise shows that Trump is willing to let bygones be bygones, though only after the 39-year-old senator “kissed his ass,” as Trump said when he endorsed Vance for the Senate. Rudd hasn’t exactly done that, though some would consider his diplomatic flattery not far off the mark, albeit in the service of Australia.

Rudd’s work may prove to be in vain. Trump has a history of feuding with some of his closest aides and of not paying much attention to his political advisers.

Behm says that if Trump’s first term is any guide, his second presidency will unfold “without deep analytical frameworks.” Trump makes policy on the fly, guided by his instincts.

Yet the Make America Great Again ideology is a radical departure from Australia’s current assumptions about shared alliance interests. It is based on a narrow view of American exceptionalism and has deep roots in US isolationism.

A clear example of this is Trump’s lukewarm commitment to strategic alliances such as NATO and the war in Ukraine.

The 10th anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine, which killed 300 passengers, including 38 Australians, was a timely reminder of the West’s miscalculation about Russia’s aggressive intentions.

Attorney General Mark Dreyfus admits that more should have been done when “Russia showed its aggression and took control of Crimea.”

Dreyfus was in the Netherlands to attend a memorial service for the downing of MH17. He sees the additional $100 million Australia has committed to Ukraine to help resist the Russian invasion as an expression of its intention to “continue to assist Ukraine in every way possible.” This commitment is shared with the Biden administration and the European Union.

Trump’s stance is problematic. His vice presidential nominee is stridently skeptical of U.S. intervention. Vance thinks it’s “ridiculous,” and said in February that he thought it “absurd” that the U.S. would devote so much resources, attention and time “to a border conflict 6,000 miles away when our own southern border is wide open.”

Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who acts as Australia’s informal conduit to Trump, is confident the Republican candidate will continue to respect the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, but Behm and other analysts are not convinced.

Trump would be drawn to most of the $368 billion Australia is willing to spend on submarines, especially the money to subsidize U.S. shipyards. But, as he has always done, he would likely end the deal if those shipyards continue to lack the capacity to meet U.S. needs, let alone ours.

Greens leader Adam Bandt says another Trump presidency would be a disaster for the US and Australia. He says Australia should review the AUKUS deal and ditch it. “It would be unthinkable for Trump to make our strategic decisions or decisions about how we should deploy Australian submarines.”

Reinforcing Bandt’s call is this week’s news that Canada has opted for conventionally powered submarines, ruling out the nuclear option for cost and operational reasons.

The Greens leader is even more concerned about Trump’s climate denialism and his promise to scrap Biden’s determined commitment to renewable energy and serious action against climate change. The government is not commenting on the matter, but it is no less worried.

Before the shooting at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump’s slogan was: “Drill, baby, drill.” He promises to expand fracking for gas extraction with ambitions of making the US the world’s largest gas exporter. This will be a repeat of his “America First” ambitions, which saw his trade war with China cause Australian grain producers to lose massively to American exporters.

More immediately worrying is the erosion of American democratic institutions, which began with George W. Bush’s Supreme Court stacking and was continued by Trump. The hardline conservative majority on the Supreme Court recently turned the United States, according to Behm, into “a totalitarian democracy” where the president is above the law.

This week, at a conference held at the Museum of Australian Democracy in Canberra’s Old Parliament House, there were some disturbing reflections on the threats to democracy in Australia and around the world.

Releasing the Strengthening Democracy Task Force report, Home Secretary Clare O’Neil cited Freedom House’s 2024 global survey which found global freedom had declined for the 18th consecutive year.

O’Neil said that “over the past decade, the number of people living in democracies has declined and many democratic countries have become less democratic.”

He added: “Autocratic leaders are personalizing political power, strangling free speech, attacking diversity, and adopting authoritarian ‘strongman’ measures.”

To Australian eyes, the Republican Convention in Milwaukee had all the appearance of a Trump cult celebration.

A cursory reading of the US Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 agenda for the incoming Trump administration is as chilling as the night in Canberra when these issues were being discussed.

However, there are three pillars of the Australian democratic system that give reason for optimism in avoiding left- or right-wing extremes: compulsory, preferential voting overseen by an independent, federal Australian Electoral Commission.

A recent Australian Public Service Commission survey found that 91 percent of Australians said they had confidence in the electoral commission and it ranked first in public satisfaction.

Following the assassination attempt, Albanese said Australia had had “a peaceful political process and peaceful transitions of power”. He said democracy was our great asset and “we need to seek unity where possible, seek respectful disagreement”.

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