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NHC tracks tropical waves. Expect September storms


Change in weather patterns could lead to ‘tropical activity frenzy’

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Hurricane Hone dropped 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rainfall on Hawaii over the weekend as the hurricane moved south of the Big Island on Sunday as a Category 1 storm.

Another potential threat this week could be Hurricane Gilma, which is currently just over 1,200 miles east of Hilo. And after a quiet start in the Pacific, the National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a third tropical system in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Hector, which is expected to strengthen as it moves west.

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With Labor Day just a week away and school already in session in Florida, meteorologists’ best advice is to stay alert when it comes to storms in the Atlantic region.

AccuWeather weather forecasters predict that “a major change in the weather pattern will soon open the door wide for a wave of tropical activity.”

“I think it could get very active here very quickly once the dry air goes away,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s chief hurricane expert.

“We could see a parade of storms. This dramatic increase in activity will begin in late August and continue through September,” AccuWeather said. Labor Day 2024 is Sept. 2.

AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting between six and 10 tropical systems for September, similar to the pace of the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season, which saw 10 September storms. That year saw a record 30 named storms in the season.

Is Florida at Risk for Tropical Cyclones in September? Who Should Be Concerned?

According to AccuWeather, Florida and the Carolinas are at increased risk for a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall. But they’re not the only states that should keep a close eye on the tropics.

“I still have serious concerns about the Texas coast,” DaSilva said.

In its August forecast update, Colorado State University predicted the likelihood of at least one major hurricane making landfall in Florida:

  • Entire continental US coastline: 56%
    • The average from 1880-2020 is 43%
  • US East Coast including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key): 30%
    • The average from 1880-2020 is 21%
  • Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key) west to Brownsville: 38%
    • The average from 1880-2020 is 27%

In its biweekly weather forecast for the period August 20 through September 2, Colorado State University predicts normal hurricane activity, but adds that “environmental conditions appear to become more favorable for tropical cyclones toward the end of August.”

“There is a potential for tropical cyclone formation in the eastern/central Atlantic and Caribbean in 8-14 days. Some of these ensemble members are aggressive in intensification, which makes sense given the low shear forecast across the basin in week two,” CSU said.

Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 8:00 am on August 26:

What can be found and what are the chances that they will become stronger?

The National Hurricane Center was monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, following a 2 a.m. advisory. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

  • First wave: This tropical wave is located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean north of Cape Verde. It is moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
  • Second wave: The second tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic east of Puerto Rico. It is also moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.

Need Hurricane Supplies? Save Now During Florida’s Tax Holidays

The second and final two-week period to conserve hurricane supplies began on August 24 and runs through September 6.

With the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season not only set to be busy—some predict more than double the average of 14 named storms—but also stretch well into November, now is the time to stock up on supplies. As a storm approaches, stores start to rush, emptying shelves of essentials.

Which hurricane supplies are tax-free in Florida?

  • A portable generator used to provide light or communications or to preserve food in the event of a power outage. Retail price $3,000 or less.
  • A tarpaulin or other flexible, waterproof covering with a retail price of $100 or less.
  • An item normally sold as, or generally advertised as, a ground anchor system or mounting kit with a retail price of $100 or less.
  • A smoke detector or smoke alarm with a retail price of $70 or less.
  • A fire extinguisher with a retail price of $70 or less.
  • A carbon monoxide detector with a retail price of $70 or less.
  • A non-electric food cooler with a retail price of $60 or less.
  • A portable power bank with a retail price of $60 or less.
  • A gas or diesel tank with a retail price of $50 or less.
  • A portable powered radio, walkie-talkie, or weather radio with a retail price of $50 or less.
  • A package of AA cells, AAA cells, C cells, D cells, 6-volt or 9-volt batteries, excluding automotive and boat batteries, with a retail price of $50 or less.
  • A portable, self-powered light source (battery, solar, handheld, or gas) with a retail price of $40 or less.
  • Flashlights
  • Reusable ice cubes (ice cubes) with a retail price of $20 or less.
  • Lanterns
  • Candles

Do you need a generator? With the active hurricane season upon us, do you need a generator in Florida? Here’s how to decide

How to prepare for hurricane season: Budget? Here Are 5 Cheap Ways to Prepare Your Home for Florida Hurricane Season

Expect a new ‘cone of concern’ with the next named storm as it approaches Florida and the US

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NHC launches new cone of concern: what you need to know

The National Hurricane Center launched a new, experimental cone of concern in August. Here’s what’s changed.

On August 14, the National Hurricane Center launched its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto.

Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn’t see much difference between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for inland counties, not just those on the coast.

Both cones are visible on the Hurricane Center website. Find the new cone by going to the graphic page for the storm and then click on “New Experimental Cone,” which will be highlighted in red.

Differences you will see:

  • Warnings apply to inland provinces, not just coastal areas.
  • White transparent shading for the full five-day forecast, instead of white dots for the four- and five-day forecasts.

Who is likely to be affected?

It is too early to tell whether the tropical waves will impact Florida or the US.

➤ Heavy rain is expected

Forecasters are urging all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. The advice is especially important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Weather Alerts and Warnings Issued in Florida

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

According to the Hurricane Center, peak season is September 10, with the most activity between mid-August and mid-October.

Map from the National Hurricane Center: What are meteorologists looking at now?

The systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Interactive Map: Hurricanes, Tropical Storms That Have Passed Near Your City

Heavy rain is expected

What now?

We continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you are always connected to the news. And check out our special subscription offers here.