My First Bet: Early Picks for NFL Week 1

The 2024 NFL Week 1 schedule is packed with great matchups.

The first week features a Thursday and Friday night game, with the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) kicking off the season on September 5 against the Baltimore Ravens. The NFL action then moves to Brazil for a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles on September 6.

The Detroit Lions will play an NFC Division rematch against the Los Angeles Rams on Sept. 8. The game will conclude with the likely return of Aaron Rodgers, as the New York Jets take on the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football (ABC/ESPN+) on Sept. 9.

Our betting analysts have been looking at the odds from Week 1 to get an indication before the odds come out closer to the matches.

Joe Fortenbaugh’s First Bet: Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Several respected bookmakers — both in Vegas and offshore — have already adjusted to Chiefs -2.5 thanks to an influx of advanced Ravens money. With Baltimore +3 (-120) still available at ESPN BET, I’m going to move down now before the key “3” disappears.

Since taking over Baltimore in 2008, John Harbaugh is an utterly unthinkable 12-4 straight-up and against the spread in Week 1. That 75% hit rate jumps to 85.7% (6-1 SU and ATS) from 2017-present, with an insane +18.9 cover margin. Look for newly acquired running back Derrick Henry and the Baltimore rushing attack to keep the Ravens offense on the field… and Patrick Mahomes off it.

Tyler Fulghum’s First Bet: Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions

I don’t know if this will go to 3, but if it does, I want the extra half point on the Rams. Sean McVay has been an absolute killer in Week 1 (7-0 ATS). The Rams could have easily won that Wild Card game in January at Ford Field. This should be another exciting coin toss game. More than a field goal advantage on the scoreboard seems like a lot of value to me.

Ben Solak’s First Bet: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-120) vs. Cleveland Browns

I understand the Browns were 5-1 in Deshaun Watson’s six starts last season, but he was far from impressive in that limited time. Without Nick Chubb in the backfield, Watson will have to carry the Browns offense against what should remain a frugal defense in Dallas, even with DaRon Bland’s injury.

But even more than I want to knock the Browns early, I’m buying the Cowboys early. I think they drafted well and developed well to account for their departing offensive line. I also think our focus on the poor long-term health of the Cowboys franchise (long CeeDee Lamb contract hold-in, no Dak deal, no Parsons deal) has us biased against the short-term health of the Cowboys roster at this point. Prescott, Parsons, and Lamb are still rebuilding. Only the Chiefs have won more regular season games than the Cowboys over the past three years. This is still a very good football team.

First Bet Seth Walder: Alternative Spread: Seattle Seahawks (-12.5, +215) vs. Denver Broncos

I’m going to use an alternate line here to take advantage of the fact that this game has a lot more variance than a normal game. There’s a chance that Ryan Grubb’s offense — which led Washington to the national title game last year — could produce immediate fireworks in its NFL debut. Mike Macdonald would have to find creative ways to generate pressure and get Seattle’s pass rush going right away. And there’s a chance that Bo Nix just doesn’t cut it in his NFL debut. I don’t know if either of those things will happen, but the odds of an extreme outcome seem much higher here than in most games.

Andre Snelling’s first bet: Green Bay Packers +3.0 over Philadelphia Eagles (-120).

Jalen Hurts hasn’t played at all this preseason and, for the second straight year, will enter the season with a new offense under a new offensive coordinator. The Packers are currently getting a full 3 points from ESPN BET, even though the Eagles don’t exactly have home-field advantage with the game scheduled to be played in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While I expect the Eagles to look better than the team that lost six of its last seven games last season, they’ll be facing a Packers team that hit its stride last year when Jordan Love hit the ground running in his first year as the starting under center. Love enters this year with a full complement of exciting young wide receivers who are healthy, raising the ceiling for the Packers’ offense and increasing the likelihood that they’ll enter the season on a high.