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NHC tracks 2 tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean

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The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, including one in the Gulf of Mexico, that could bring storms to the U.S. in the coming days.

The Gulf system could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Texas and Louisiana early next week. “It’s going to simmer down for a little bit this weekend,” Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, told USA TODAY.

The steering flow will get it moving and early next week the system could reach southern Texas by Monday before moving along the Gulf toward Louisiana, possibly entering the Mississippi River Valley, he said. “Then you have to react to a moving system that’s coming at you,” Smerbeck said.

While these systems were being monitored, flood warnings remained in effect for Florida’s Big Bend and Panhandle coastal areas through Saturday evening.

However, neither system is expected to break the surprising lull in Atlantic hurricane activity in recent weeks. No named storms have formed since Aug. 12 — a stretch not seen in 56 years, Phil Klotzbach, a senior hurricane scientist at Colorado State University, recently told USA TODAY.

Experts had predicted a hyperactive hurricane season, with as many as 25 named storms. But so far, only five have formed, three of which have developed into hurricanes.

Where are the predicted hurricanes?: Experts fear that more Atlantic storms are on the way.

National Hurricane Center tracks two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean

The first system tracked by the NHC is a tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche and west of the Yucatán Peninsula, which separates the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea.

The system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Guatemala, southeastern Mexico and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the center said.

A developing low could help it become a tropical depression early to mid-next week as it moves slowly north-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As wind shear diminishes, very warm waters could help it strengthen into a single system and move north toward the U.S., AccuWeather’s Smerbeck said.

According to meteorologists, there is a 60% chance of this happening in the next seven days.

A second system, currently in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, is producing showers and thunderstorms. With the possibility of a low developing in the coming days, meteorologists are giving a 30% chance of the system developing as it moves west-northwestward.

The tropical systems tracked by the National Hurricane Center on Friday were no longer on the NHC’s tracking maps by Saturday morning.

What is a tropical wave?

According to AccuWeather.com, the term “tropical wave” does not refer to waves or undulations in the ocean, but is of an atmospheric nature.

Tropical waves are elongated areas, or troughs, of relatively low pressure that move from east to west through the tropics and then move westward from Africa into the Atlantic Ocean.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a wave can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone, which can then develop into a tropical storm or hurricane.

Atlantic Storm Tracker

As the peak of hurricane season approaches, what can we expect?

While the 2024 hurricane season may not be a record-breaking one, experts are still expecting more activity. The season typically peaks around September 10, and there are still nearly three months until the season peaks on December 1.

“From our perspective, things are still on track right now,” Dan Harnos, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center team that prepares the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook, told USA TODAY on Thursday.

Conditions are still favorable, with very warm and record-warm ocean temperatures across much of the Atlantic, Harnos said. “There’s plenty of room for the tide to turn with all the warm water there. Things can change quickly.”

Contributors: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Network.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.

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