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Israel has promised Iran ‘consequences’. Here are three things that could happen next

Immediately after Iran fired its barrage of drones, missiles and ballistic missiles into Israel on Tuesday evening, something was made clear.

“There will be consequences,” said Admiral Daniel Hagari, a prominent spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Although the country has been battling opponents on multiple fronts for 12 months, a series of escalations have occurred in the past two weeks.

But if the rear admiral’s words are to be true, another one could be imminent.

Iran said the attack was in response to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week.

Here are three things Israel could do next.

Night sky with an illuminated dome and orange flares in the sky

Iran’s attack lit up the skies over Jerusalem on Tuesday evening, although the missiles aimed at the city were intercepted. (Reuters: Jamal Awad)

We’ve been here before

In April, we found ourselves at a similar crossroads in the region, and what Israel decided to do then could provide clues as to the possible retaliation this time.

Iran fired hundreds of drones, rockets and missiles directly at Israel in response to that country’s airstrike on its embassy complex in Damascus, Syria.

According to Israel, 99 percent of the barrage was shot down by various sources, and the United States subsequently urged its closest ally to “take victory” and not respond.

But six days after that attack, Israel launched several missiles at air defense units at a military site near Isfahan.

The site contains Iran’s largest nuclear research facility.

While Iran opted for a theatrical option, Israel made its position clear in a more targeted way: it proved that it had the capabilities to strike a sensitive target if it wanted to.

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Israel’s response was smaller in scale than Iran’s attack, but was clearly intended to strike a balance between deterring the enemy and preventing a further escalation of the situation.

Crucially, Iran did not hit back last time, which could mean that Israel is now opting for a similar option: attacking military infrastructure, which is unlikely to cause civilian casualties, in a way that avoids any threat of pushing the region deeper into a conflict arises.

However, after finding themselves in this position earlier this year, Israel’s military and political leaders may believe that a stronger deterrent is needed for the Islamic Republic.

An escalation could be coming

What might greater retaliation look like?

While we are still learning about the specifics of the Iranian barrage, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said it contained many more ballistic missiles than the ones it sent in April, and that is significant because they are harder to shoot down.

Given all that, a next step for Israel could be to target an Iranian nuclear facility, rather than an object near it, as it did last time. Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, has urged the IDF to do so.

However, Iran would view this as a significant escalation.

Iran said it attacked military assets in Israel with its missiles this week. If Israel were to increase its response while minimizing the danger to civilians, it could attempt to attack the enemy’s critical infrastructure, such as power plants or oil production facilities.

Iran produces about 4 percent of the world’s oil, and some American politicians have called on Israel to target the oil industry.

US politicians have supported an attack on Iranian oil production. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said the Biden administration should help Israel prepare an “overwhelming response” and that Iran’s oil refineries should be “hit and hit hard.”

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What about the restraint?

This is a long shot, but there is always the possibility that Israel cannot do anything.

Despite attacking directly twice this year, Iran has made it clear that it does not want war. Analysts say that while the barrage of missiles, drones and ballistic missiles could be interpreted as aggression, they should actually be a deterrent.

There are a few things that mean Israel doing nothing is unlikely.

The first is that several political and military leaders within the state have vowed to retaliate.

But there has also been a clear, calculated shift in what the country is willing to do.

While Israel has long fought Iran through its allies in Hezbollah (in Lebanon), Hamas (in Gaza), the Houthis (in Yemen) and the Syrian regime, 2024 has brought an important development: Iran and Israel have attacked each other. directly.

Now that that line has been crossed, restraint seems much less likely.

Following Iran’s attack in April, Israel’s allies urged the country not to escalate the situation. However, these calls were much quieter this time. It is another factor that makes it highly unlikely that Israel will not respond.

Furthermore, there is the fact that Israel will also know that it can defeat Iran militarily.

Decades of Western sanctions have taken their toll on Iran. The country’s air defense systems are not hermetic. The Iranian air force is outdated.

For all these reasons, the question now is not whether Israel will strike back, but rather when and how hard.

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