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Here’s who wins in the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris

Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains an apparent dead end less than four weeks before the election, according to a series of surveys this month that show Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in recent weeks.

Key facts

Harris leads by four points in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, down one point from her position in the two previous polls.

Trump trails Harris 51% to 49% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey of registered voters released Monday, after the two were tied in the groups’ September survey.

Trump and Harris were tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Sunday, while an ABC/Ipsos poll, also released Sunday, put Harris ahead by two points (50%-48%). shows among likely voters, within the ABC poll’s 2.5-point margin of error — a shift after both ABC and NBC showed Harris ahead by about five points last month.

A third poll Sunday from CBS/YouGov showed Harris with a 51%-48% lead over Trump, with likely voters — slightly tighter than Harris’ 52%-48% lead last month — while Harris has a narrower lead of 50 %-49% have in the seven battleground states.

Other polls show the vice president with a wider lead, though the race has tightened in recent weeks: Harris is four points ahead of Trump, 49% to 45%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters released Wednesday released, after ahead of him by five points (49% to 46%) in the September 30 groups survey.

Harris is up 49% to 46% in an Oct. 8 New York Times/Siena poll, the first time since July she has led Trump in the groups’ polls.

Three other polls last month – a Quinnipiac poll published on September 24, a New York Times/Siena poll published on September 19, and a CNN/SSRS poll published on September 24 – showed that Trump and Harris were tied, while almost all other polls show Harris in the lead.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

Who is favored to win the election: Harris or Trump?

Harris is favored to win 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver puts Harris’ chances at 52.2/47.6, writing that he has “never seen an election where the forecast was closer to 50/50 for longer.”

Big number

1.4. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 2.5-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris 2.9 points higher in his Silver Bulletin prediction.

How does Harris perform against Trump in swing states?

Most surveys show Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages — but all seven swing states are within single digits.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released on September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted September 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found that 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who backed Trump and 6% who said they were unsure know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than the lead Democratic candidates have had in the past, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polls and a lead of 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

How has the debate affected the polls?

Pre-debate surveys showed Harris’ polling surge appeared to be stalling, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters from September 3 to 5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, a decline compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters in each demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris’ debate performance on September 10, with 67% overall saying they liked it did, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris rose 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken just days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from versus her six-point lead with likely voters. in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos polls — even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of resisting calls from within his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her during a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stagnated on 71%. according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.

Read more

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate, but it largely didn’t change voters’ minds (Forbes)

Trump’s lead over Biden and Harris widened after RNC, shows HarrisX/Forbes Poll (Forbes)

Here’s How Kamala Harris Does in Polls Against Trump — While Biden Drops Out and Backs Harris (Forbes)

Harris’ lead over Trump unchanged after DNC, first poll (Forbes)