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Is Donald Trump in his best polling era ever?

Former President Donald Trump is polling stronger than he currently is in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but the race against Vice President Kamala Harris remains close according to recent polling averages.

The 2024 presidential campaign is entering its final few weeks, with polls showing Trump and Harris separated by narrow margins in the battleground states. In 2016 and 2020, polls suggested that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden had a stronger lead over Trump than Harris at the same time in those elections, respectively.

Real Clear Politics (RCP) gave Harris a 1.4-point lead over Trump nationally on Tuesday, with swing states closing even closer or breaking in the former president’s favor.

The average is Trump’s strongest RCP average in mid-October. The pollster gave Biden a 9.4-point lead and Clinton a 6.7-point lead.

Is Donald Trump in the best polling era?
Former President Donald Trump attends a rally in Coachella, California on October 12. Trump’s poll numbers are stronger than in the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Mario Tama/Getty Images

The polls were off by several points in both elections and were more in favor of the Democrats than the final results. Clinton won the popular vote by about two points in 2016, losing the Electoral College, while Biden won the popular vote by about 4.5 points in 2020, capturing electoral votes 306 to 232.

Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, explains Newsweek that the race looks closer this year due to ever-changing methodologies, a historically tight race and improvements in aggregation.

“Let’s also not forget what 2016 and 2020 looked like – incredibly close races at the end, while a winner may have seemed obvious, but a standard-sized polling error could – and did in 2016 – deflate the pre-election polls turn his head. Bye,” she said.

“Opinion polls from past election cycles became mired in a narrative that a Democratic victory was certain, rather than recognizing the inherent uncertainty that statistical estimates from polls bring and that a lead of a few points – even if consistent – ​​is not a victory guarantees,” added.

If a similar polling error occurs as in 2016 or 2020, it could point to a Trump victory next month.

“Let’s say we have an election error like we had in 2020. What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election with 312 electoral votes, because he controls all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states that he was. leading in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” CNN data reporter Harry Enten said this month.

Pollsters have warned that a mistake could be repeated in November. The fact that polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020 does not necessarily mean they will do so in November, as pollsters adjust their post-election methodologies to aim for more accurate results.

Pollsters have moved away from the “traditional gold standard” of telephone surveys and are now using text messages and panels, Koning said. After 2016, pollsters also started to include education in their weighting.

“A major issue in all these election cycles has been the ‘quality’ of Republican voters, as opposed to the ‘quantity’ — in other words, getting Trump supporters to respond. Some pollsters have modified the design of the questionnaires and the wording of the questions to capture this. , while others have weighed this election cycle – for better or worse – on past voting and/or partisanship,” she said.

Some pollsters are now using past voting history as a way to correct the undercount of the past few presidential races.

In a statement to NewsweekRepublican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly praised Trump’s polls.

“Even after Democrats spent more than $200 million redefining Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning in every battleground because his message resonates with voters across the country,” she said.

Newsweek also contacted Harris’ campaign via email for comment.

Democrats and Republicans agree the race is close, and both candidates are spending the final weeks of the campaign crisscrossing battleground states in hopes of building momentum and urging their supporters to vote. Maximizing turnout in the coming weeks will be crucial to both candidates’ victory, regardless of the polls.

But polls don’t always underestimate Republicans. In 2012 they did the opposite. RCP showed Mitt Romney leading then-President Barack Obama by 0.7 points, but Obama ultimately won by 3.9 points.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling average was slightly stronger for Harris. It showed she was 2.4 points ahead of Trump. But in 2020, Biden led the polling average by 10.5 points on October 15. Clinton led by six points on the same day in 2016.

Recent polls have also been slightly better for Trump than earlier this fall, but still not as strong as after his debate against Biden in July. Trump overtook Biden in the polls after the debate fueled concerns about the president’s age, ultimately resulting in his withdrawal from the race. Harris rebounded after becoming the Democratic nominee, but the race is still seen as a toss-up.

How Swing State Polling Averages Compare to 2020, 2016

RCP’s polling average Tuesday showed Trump ahead by 1.1 points in Arizona, while Biden led by 3.5 points and Trump by 0.7 points in 2020 and 2016, respectively. In Nevada, Trump led Harris by just 0.2 points, compared to Biden’s 5.2-point lead in 2020 and Clinton’s 1.6-point lead in 2016.

graph visualization

In Georgia, Trump led Harris by an average of 0.6 points on Tuesday, compared to Biden’s 1.2-point lead in 2020 and Trump’s 5.3-point lead in 2016. Trump is ahead by 0.6 points in North Carolina, according to RCP. Biden led Trump by 2.8 points in 2020, while Clinton led him by 3.3 points in 2016 in the Tar Heel State.

Trump had a 0.9 point lead over Michigan’s RCP average on Tuesday. Biden led by 7.2 points in 2020, and Clinton currently led by 11.4 points in 2016. Trump led Harris in Pennsylvania by 0.3 points, compared to Biden’s lead of 6.4 points in 2020 and Clinton’s lead of 8.2 points in 2016.

Harris led Trump by 0.3 points in Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 6.3 points, while Clinton led Trump in the state by 6 points in 2016.