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An Analysis of the NLCS Game 3 Pitching Matchup

After a 7-3 victory on Monday night, the New York Mets evened the series heading into three straight home games at Citi Field against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sean Manaea continued his dominance against a high-powered Dodger lineup that scored nine points in game one of the National League Championship Series. He gave up just two earned runs in five innings of work, striking out the favorite to win National League MVP Shohei Ohtani.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided to call a bullpen game on Monday afternoonin which the Mets saw five different relievers over the course of nine innings. The Mets were able to pick up Landon Knack in the top of the second inning thanks to a grand slam off the bat of Mark Vientos that blew the game open early. They could hold hands lead and tie the series on its way back to Vlissingen.

The Mets look to take control in front of the home crowd for Game 3 on Wednesday night. Here are the pitching matchups for Game 3…

Luis Severino. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Luis Severino

Luis Severino hasn’t been as dominant as Sean Manaea or Jose Quintana this postseason. Still, to his credit, he fought his way through two respectable starts against the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies. Severino has a career ERA of 5.01 in the postseason, where he has seen a nightmare start with the New York Yankees, but in both of his postseason starts with the Mets he has managed to throw six innings with a total of ten strikeouts.

Severino has been able to find himself with the Mets this season, relying on his fastball as he did in 2018 and 2022. In 2024, his fastball run value is in the 90th percentile among qualified pitchers, and he has been able to put hitters away. with his new sweeper. The right-hander uses his sweeper just 17.2% of the time, but has a Whiff rate of 38.6%, with hitters hitting .139 against the pitch and using it as a serve pitch 24.3% of the time. To put that in perspective, Severino’s putaway in 2023 was his sinker, where he had just a hint of a 20.8% percentage.

Mookie Betts is a lifetime .324 hitter against Severino (11-34) with a home run, four doubles, four runs batted in and seven strikeouts. The only two other position players with more than 10 plate appearances against Severino are Teoscar Hernandez and Kevin Kiermaier, both of whom hit under .200. Severino, on the other hand, only has two starts against the Dodgers (none this season) and has given up seven runs in six innings of work.

While Severino has been able to regain some dominance this year with a 3.91 ERA in the regular season, he has given up the most home runs in the starting rotation (23) and the second most walks (60). Walks have always killed the Mets starters, but Severino needs to keep the ball in the park and attack the Dodgers’ lineup.

Walker Buhler

Walker Buehler will start for the Dodgers on Wednesday night after pitching a bullpen game on Monday afternoon. Buehler had a terrible start against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, giving up six earned runs in five innings of work, but he has a great track record in the postseason considering the poor start. In 16 career postseason starts, Buehler has a 3.40 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings pitched.

Buehler has a deep mix and relies on seven different pitches, primarily using his sweeper to put hitters away. Although he only uses his sweeper 8.2% of the time, it is his best swing and miss throw with a 29.4% whiff rate and a 24.5% save rate. Even with his seven-pitch arsenal, Buehler uses his fastball 29% of the time, and that’s where hitters have hurt him. He has given up a .342 batting average on that pitch, which equates to a .321 batting average on the first pitch in an at-bat thrown.

Pete Alonso, a lifetime .357 hitter against Buehler (5-for-14), with four home runs, eight batted in and one strikeout, has Buehler in second place. Jesse Winker, a lifetime .267 hitter against Buehler (4-for-15) with two home runs, three runs batted in and two strikeouts, has the most experience against Buehler.

The Mets have struggled to start pitching all postseason, thriving when opponents were forced to their bullpen, but have a unique opportunity to jump on Buehler given his splits with the fastball and first pitch thrown into at-bats.

FINAL THOUGHTS

After leveling the series, the Mets can once again control their fate with a win on Wednesday night. Luis Severino, in his first postseason start at Citi Field, gets a great opportunity to shut down a Dodger lineup on a cold night in New York City. He has shown dominance at home for the Flushing this season with a 2.96 ERA.

While a hot start is always ideal, the Mets need to be ultra-aggressive against Buehler. Not only will an aggressive approach lead to success, but the Dodgers are coming off a bullpen game, and even with a day off, hitting their bullpen will completely change Dave Roberts’ pitching strategy for the rest of the series.

For the Mets, it’s pretty simple. Win Game 3 and you can control your own destiny, with two more games to follow at Citi Field.