India vs New Zealand 2024/25, IND vs NZ 3rd Test Match Preview

Big picture: Pride (for India) and WTC points are at stake

A score of 2-0 in the final Test is what most followers of the game would have predicted when this three-match series between India and New Zealand started 15 days ago. But hardly anyone could have predicted that ‘2’ would not conflict with India’s name.

It took a number of firsts for New Zealand to find themselves in the position they are in. And now that they’re heading to Mumbai with the series under their belts, they have the chance to do the unthinkable: take a series across India to India. Only once have India been swept domestically in a series of more than one Test (against South Africa in 1999-2000) and never in a series of more than two Tests. Can India save itself the embarrassment?

While there is pride at stake for the home side, there are also crucial WTC points up for grabs for both sides. India is still leading the WTC points table, but that lead has been significantly reduced by these two defeats. One more loss here and they will have plenty of catching up to do in Australia.

For New Zealand, reaching the WTC final seemed far-fetched when this series started, but these two wins have put them back in contention. A win in Mumbai and then in the three-match series at home against England will keep them in the mix for another WTC final.

It has taken a lot of grit, determination and long periods of brilliant cricket for New Zealand to dictate terms. They disposed of India for 46 in Bengaluru and then stuck it out in the second innings as Rishabh Pant and Sarfaraz Khan hit them around. The naysayers would say that conditions in Bengaluru were more suited to New Zealand than India. So they went to Pune and beat India in completely different circumstances.

Rarely has a foreign spinner surpassed his Indian counterparts in India. But Mitchell Santner understood the assignment from the start and India had no answers to his deception and dip. They also have Ajaz Patel, who is present at the scene of his epic 2021 ten-wicket haul.

For India, it is more about how they can bounce back from these shock defeats and pull off a win ahead of the tour of Australia. On paper this is a dead rubber. In reality, it is anything but.

Form guide

India LLWWW (last five tests, most recent first)
New Zealand WWLLL

In the spotlight – Virat Kohli and Mitchell Santner

Virat Kohli has a problem: it’s called spin, and it has grown in the last few years, especially in Asia. Since the start of 2022, Kohli has played 19 Tests, scoring four fifties and two centuries. Twelve of these have been in Asia, where he has led only one hundred and fifty. What stands out is his fallibility against spin.

In 19 innings in Asia since January 2022, he has fallen 16 times and turned 16 times, for an average of 29.31. The corresponding number against the pace is three dismissals, while the average is 47.00. For someone who has that old-fashioned long stretch forward against spinners, he often gets dismissed when playing from the crease. He lost three of the four innings in this series, against Glenn Phillips in Bengaluru and twice against Santner in Pune. On a Mumbai surface that is about to turn, Kohli may have to do a little extra to get his turning numbers right.

It will be Mitchell Santner who will once again be tasked with not letting Kohli and the others escape. For someone whose Instagram bio reads: ‘part-time New Zealand cricketer, full-time golfer’, it was an incredible effort to come in and pick up 13 wickets in Pune, the same number he had achieved in the five Tests he had played before that, till June 2021. He had adjusted his side in Pune, but seems to have recovered well. He batted and bowled into the nets two days before the Mumbai Test and will be hoping to have a similar impact to what he did in Pune.

Team news: Bumrah gets rest? What about Southee?

Even though the series has already been lost, there is a chance that India will rest Jasprit Bumrah before the five-match series against Australia starts next month. Since practice was mandatory, everyone did everything they could at the nets the day before the Test, except Bumrah, who did not bowl. Gautam Gambhir said Bumrah is fit and available. But with a long tour ahead, India could give their Prime Minister a break, as they did against England in Ranchi earlier this year. Will they replace him with a spinner in Kuldeep Yadav or a fast bowler in Mohammed Siraj remains to be seen. The batting unit should remain unchanged and Sarfaraz Khan should retain his place.

India (probable /Kuldeep Yadav/Mohammed Siraj, 11 Akash Deep

Matt Henry looks set to return to the New Zealand XI after missing the Pune Test due to a buttock problem. He bowled at full capacity two days before the Test and underwent a fitness test on Thursday. Henry was the favorite of the bowlers in Bengaluru and is likely to come in for Tim Southee. There were more clues from pre-match training, with Santner playing at third slip in the quick field in place of Southee, who often occupies that position. The rest of the XI will likely remain unchanged.

New Zealand (probably , 11 William O’Rourke

Location and conditions

The red ground surface in Mumbai is dry and will get its turn early. It is expected to crumble as the Test progresses, but there should be good bounce for the fast bowlers and spinners. Mumbai is expected to be humid, with temperatures likely to be in the low to mid 30s degrees Celsius.

Statistics and trivia

Quotes

“I think it looks a very good wicket. Obviously it’s very difficult for anyone to judge how the wicket is going to behave unless play starts on it and both teams have batted on it. But I think it looks a decent wicket looks and I’m sure once the boys get in they’ll make the most of it.”
Indian head coach Gautam Gambhir on the Wankhede surface

“I think so, yes. We will obviously look at the wicket, but I think if you look at previous deliveries, I think most teams have batted first.”
Captain Tom Latham is clear about what he wants to do if New Zealand wins the toss on Friday

Ashish Pant is a sub-editor at ESPNcricinfo