Trump takes all but one of the swing states thanks to strong black support: polls

Could the presidential election battleground states ultimately be as uncompetitive as the just-wrapped World Series?

That’s the question raised by a new set of swing-state polls from Atlas Intel that shows Donald Trump on track for 287 electoral votes if the projections translate into reality on Tuesday.

And the key to the former president’s performance in these polls is that black voters are supporting Trump to a degree that other surveys of the race do not show, signaling a possible crack in a historic Democratic coalition that has existed for more than half a century goes back.

With the exception of a 0.2-point lead for Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, where she has Trump 49% to 48.8%, the GOP nominee is in the swing states that will decide the election.

Among the 1,005 likely Arizona voters surveyed, the Mar-a-Lago man leads the veep 50.8% to 45.9%. He is almost 7 points ahead of Harris among men, more than 4 points among women and almost 2 points among independents.

Trump is taking over 5% of Biden 2020 voters, while less than 3% of Trump voters are moving to Harris in the last cycle.

The former president also has 26% of the black vote in the state, along with more than 45% of Hispanics.

Among the 1,212 likely voters surveyed in Georgia, Trump leads 48.8% to 47.2%, positioning the former president to flip another state that Biden won in 2020.

People who don’t remember their 2020 vote or didn’t vote at all are critical here, as Trump has a 20-point lead over them. He gets more than 25% of the black vote. He also has nearly 50% of Asian support, with the rest largely split between Harris and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has more than 18% support from them.

Among Michigan’s 1,136 likely voters, Trump has a narrow lead: 49.2% to 48.3%, with spoiler Stein taking 1.7% in the Wolverine State.

Trump’s strength among black voters is notable in this survey, with the former president at 39.9% and Harris at 54%. One reason this might happen: He’s getting 8% of Biden 2020 voters, while Harris is converting just 4.1% of Trump supporters from last cycle.

Nevada also appears to be on track for Trump, based on this sample of 845 likely voters, who choose the Republican candidate 50.5% to 46.9%.

As with the other states, Trump’s black support (33.7%) is notable. He also leads with Hispanics, 49.7% to 48.2%, and independents, 50.1% to 42.7%. And he’s converting 8.9% of Biden 2020 voters, while retaining 97.2% of those who voted for him four years ago.

In North Carolina, where a likely 1,373 voters were polled, Trump has majority support: 50.7% to 46.7% for Harris, despite a smaller share of black voters supporting him (19.7%) than in other states in the sample.

Trump leads here with independents, 50.2% to 44.1%, because the gender gap favors him. He has a lead of more than 15 points over the men; he is 7 points behind women.

Among Pennsylvania’s likely 1,738 voters, Trump also has a slight lead: 48.5% to 47.4%, a spread consistent with the last two nail-biting outcomes in the Keystone State. Taking 24% of black voters makes the difference here.