Hurricane season is entering its final month

CNN
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Halloween may be over, but hurricane season still has a few disturbing tricks left in its last month.

Three tropical trouble spots in the Atlantic Basin will require monitoring in the coming days as a strange hurricane season continues to defy expectations.

One of these problem areas is in the western Caribbean and has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Once it develops, it could become a tropical storm. But when and where exactly a tropical depression develops in the coming days will have major consequences for the future.

The next tropical storm to form will be named Patty, followed by Rafael and Sara.

It’s too early to determine the exact track the potential storm might follow, but the system could drift toward the Gulf of Mexico. The western Caribbean, parts of Central America and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula are likely to see heavy rainfall and perhaps some gusty winds next week.

The US Gulf Coast could finally have some atmospheric protection on its side after several devastating hurricane strikes this season. Upper-level gale-force winds are expected to build over the Gulf next week and could disperse any system that moves into the region.

The two other areas have little chance of tropical development in the coming week.

Stormy weather that brought record-breaking rain to Puerto Rico on Thursday and drenched parts of the northeastern Caribbean on Friday has a small window to organize into a tropical system as it shifts westward in the coming days. Regardless of the development, this could cause additional flooding in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola this weekend and next week.

The other area is in the open Atlantic Ocean and is unlikely to pose a threat to the country regardless of development.

November to stay active

Hurricane season typically ends in November, but this year has already proven to be anything but typical.

This season is above average in terms of named storms, hurricanes and major – Category 3 or stronger – hurricanes.

Five hurricanes hit the U.S. this year, despite the season having a major lull and confusing experts, during what should have been the busiest part of the year.

So it’s no surprise that this trend is likely to continue in November. Although storms do occur in November, they are generally much less common and the storms that hit the US are exceptionally rare.

At least 125 tropical storms and hurricanes roamed the Atlantic Ocean in November, according to NOAA data. According to hurricane expert Michael Lowry, 98 percent of named storms make landfall in the US before November.

Storms that form in November tend to do so in the Caribbean and southwestern and central Atlantic Oceans, where warm waters last longer and storm-disturbing winds tend to be weaker. The Gulf of Mexico is not a common source of tropical problems in a typical November, as storm-disturbing winds strengthen over the area in late fall.

For anything tropical to form and remain active in the Gulf, it will likely need a boost from extremely warm water. The Gulf is not as hot as it was when Helene and Milton were fueled, but it is still warmer than average in November.

Barring development opportunities in the coming days, the Caribbean could remain a tropical hotspot into the second half of November, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

The hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but tropical systems are not tied to that date. Since the late 1800s, about 20 tropical storms and hurricanes have passed through the basin in December.