Georgia vs. Florida Prediction: Who Wins and Why?

The world’s largest outdoor cocktail party is here as No. 2 Georgia takes on Florida on Saturday in college football’s Week 10 action. Here’s what to look out for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia improved to 4-1 in SEC play two weeks ago with a signature win at Texas that saved the team’s playoff hopes, but tougher tests lie ahead before the selection committee sorts everything out has.

Florida moved to 2-2 in conference play after knocking off rival Kentucky, but faces the most brutal stretch of any schedule in college football this season, playing four ranked opponents in the final five weeks of the year.

What can we expect as the Bulldogs and Gators renew their rivalry this weekend?

Here’s what to watch as Georgia and Florida meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Reunion. Georgia tailback Trevor Etienne left Florida last season and arrived in Athens waiting for this opportunity to get his old team. He leads the Bulldogs with 422 rushing yards and has scored seven times, but has yet to eclipse 100 yards in a single game.

Florida ranks 15th in the SEC and 94th nationally in rush defense in total production this season, but the rotation of the front seven has improved dramatically over the past three games, putting them in that category top 30 in that category, and their linebackers are close. limit much profit on the ground.

2. Press. Five-star Florida freshman quarterback DJ Lagway has quietly improved the Gators’ passing recently and is currently the most efficient passer in the SEC in terms of deep throws, according to Pro Football Focus metrics.

But he could struggle to gain a consistent foothold against an aggressive Georgia pass defense that has allowed just 15 completions of 20-plus yards and is blitzing quarterbacks more than ever before in the Kirby Smart era. Any early battle for UF’s quarterback could be very costly.

3. Turnover. Florida’s defense has been better at generating takeaways lately, with opponents committing six turnovers in the last three games, improving the team’s turnover margin to minus-1 on the year.

Georgia’s Carson Beck has thrown eight interceptions in his last four appearances, which has played a role in the team’s generally inconsistent offensive performance of late and could be a recent strength for the Gators’ defense.

Georgia enters the game average 30.5 points per game of the year, ranked No. 39 nationally, going against the clearance of Florida’s defense 26.3 points per gamein 74th place.

In terms of overall production, the Bulldogs are average 416.2 yards per game in 2024, No. 41 in FBS, as the Gators surrender 398.5 meters average good for 86th nationally.

Georgia is good for that 0.445 points per game average of No. 38 in the country this season, while Florida allows it 0.357 points per game in defense, ranking 61st nationally.

In third place, Georgia is only 87th in the country in terms of conversion 34 out of 89 possible attempts for a success rate of 38.2 percent this season.

Defensively, the Gators are allowing opponents to convert 39 out of 98 chances (39.8 percent).

Georgia works in the red zone and has come away with points 28 out of 31 chances for one 90.32 percent success rateand 21 of those scores are touchdowns (67.74%).

Florida has allowed opponents to score points 19 of 23 chances in the red zone for one 82.61 percent success rate while 13 of those scores were touchdowns (56.52%).

Florida has achieved the average 28.5 points per game this season he is ranked 51st nationally against a surrendering Georgian defense 19.2 points per game on average in 17th place.

In total production terms, the Gators are posting 376.8 yards per gamewhich is good for 76th in FBS while the Bulldogs allow it 333.3 yards per game on defense, 30th nationally.

Florida is average 0.458 points per game this season, he ranked 33rd in the FBS as Georgia’s defense allowed opponents to average 0.286 points per gameRanked 21st nationally.

On third down, the Gators offense has moved the chains further 31 out of 78 chances this season (39.74 percent), while the Bulldogs have allowed teams to convert 27 out of 90 chances (30%).

In the red area, Florida came away with points 27 out of 32 chances for one 84.38 percent success rate while 22 of those scores (68.75%) are touchdowns.

Georgia allows teams to rotate 14 of 17 chances in the red zone in points (82.35%), but only 8 of those scores are touchdowns, third fewest nationally.

Most analytical models are siding with the Bulldogs to eliminate the Gators in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia emerged as the majority 79.9 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

This leaves Florida as the likely winner in the remaining series 20.1 percent from sims.

Georgia is one 14.5 points favorite against Florida, according to the updated rules on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (over -110, under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia -630 and for Florida +460 to win outright.

Florida should stay in this game for at least the first half, courtesy of a Georgia back seven that has been generous to opposing quarterbacks at times, and a front seven unit that has improved and given the Bulldogs’ ground game a could throw some time off the schedule.

But over time, Georgia’s blitz packages should eventually shrink Lagway’s pocket to the point where he starts making mistakes, while Beck and his receivers expose the back end of the Gators secondary.

College Football HQ chooses…

More … Georgia vs. Florida Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
TV: ABC Network

–

The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: Bookmark | Rankings | Choices