When will it snow in Ohio? NWS history gives us a clue, see winter forecast

Have your shovels and brushes ready and adjust the heavy equipment. Winter is approaching and with it comes the white stuff as part of the winter forecast.

So, when will Ohio see its first snow? Here’s what data from the National Weather Service tells us.

When does snow start falling in Ohio? In Cincinnati, Columbus may need the kicks

NWS data gives us an idea of when to expect snow in the Buckeye State.

In Cincinnatiwhere the NWS has data dating back to 1893, the average date of first measurable snowfall (defined as one-tenth of an inch or more) is November 29 (based on data from 1981 to 2010), according to the NWS Wilmington office. The first snow of one centimeter or more falls on average on December 15.

But we all know that the weather in Ohio is fickle and winter can come sooner or later depending on the year. According to the NWS, the earliest measurable snowfall in Cincinnati occurred on October 19, 1989, when 6 inches fell. Conversely, the winter of 1982-83 lagged behind. The first measurable snow of that season fell on January 12, 1983 (one-tenth of an inch), making that date the last first snow on record.

In ColumbusAccording to NWS data (which dates back to 1885 for that city), winter snow usually comes a little earlier. On average, Ohio’s capital sees its first measurable snow on Nov. 20, according to the NWS Wilmington office, and an inch or more falls starting on Dec. 12. The earliest measurable snow fell on October 10, 1906, when one-tenth of an inch fell. And last season’s snow came when an inch fell on January 10, 2016.

Travel a little further north to the Akron Canton area, and winter comes even earlier. The first measurable snowfall typically falls on November 9, according to a tweet from NWS Cleveland on 2001.

What are the NOAA forecasts for Ohio this winter?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees a slowly developing La Niña bringing a chance for warmer and wetter than normal conditions in the Buckeye State this winter, according to the NOAA US Winter Outlook recently released by the Climate Prediction Center.

The La Niña is forecast to improve or end drought conditions in the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley regions. According to NOAA’s map, most of the state has a 33% to 40% chance of above-average precipitation from December through February. The NOAA gives Northwest Ohio better chances for a wetter winter, with the chances being between 40% and 50%.

As for temperatures, NOAA gives Ohio a 33% to 40% chance of a warmer-than-average winter, according to the agency’s temperature map. NOAA predicts warmer than average temperatures from the southern part of the US to the eastern Great Lakes, the East Coast and New England.

During a La Niña (which means “little girl” in Spanish), unusually strong trade winds push more warm water than normal in the Pacific Ocean towards Asia, according to NOAA. That causes cold water to rise off the coast of America, which in turn pushes the jet stream north. This movement tends to cause droughts in the southern US and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.