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NFL Playoff Photo After Week 14: Bucs Regain NFC South Lead; Eagles clinch playoff berth

Posted on by Vaseline

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFC South for the first time in ten weeks. Mayfield threw three touchdowns en route to eliminating the Las Vegas Raiders 28-13 on Sunday, putting the Bucs back in control of their playoff destiny.

Tampa enters Week 15 at 7-6, and the Atlanta Falcons — losers of four straight games, including Sunday’s 42-21 shellacking of the Minnesota Vikings — have fallen to 6-7. After losing to the Falcons twice this season, the Bucs need to win the division outright and avoid tiebreakers, and they are positioned to do just that.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles survived a scary Sunday loss to the Carolina Panthers, holding on to win 22-16 and clinching a playoff spot in the process. They joined the Detroit Lions as the only NFC teams to seal a postseason berth this season.

As for the rest of the NFL, here’s where things stand in the playoff picture heading into Week 15.

The listed odds of making the playoffs, securing the No. 1 seed and winning the Super Bowl are all known The Athletics‘s NFL projection model, created by Austin Mock.

AFC play-off photo

Seed Team File Result week 14

z–1

12-1

W vs LAC

z–2

10-3

L vs LAR

3

10-3

W vs. CLE

4

8-5

Bye

5

8-5

Bye

6

8-5

L vs KC

7

8-5

Bye

x — Achieved play-off berth | z — Achieved division title | * — Achieved #1 seed

Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, vs. Broncos

Chances: To reach play-offs: 100% | To earn bye: 78.6% | To win Super Bowl: 17.9%

Any team in the world would rally behind the Chiefs’ so-called shortcomings. No, they’re not the explosive team seen in recent seasons, but they just won their ninth straight AFC West title and hold a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with four games to play. They should be heavy favorites in three of those games, so the conference will once again be via Arrowhead.

Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

Chances: To reach play-offs: 100% | To earn bye: 16.8% | To win Super Bowl: 12%

The Bills’ defensive meltdown against the Los Angeles Rams took some of the shine off the upcoming showdown with the Lions, but there’s a bigger issue at stake. The Bills allowed receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to combine for 270 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, so the Lions will look to exploit these deficiencies in coverage. And if they do? The floodgates could be open for the Bills’ premier competition in the playoffs, as well-run offenses will understand how to attack a team that hasn’t looked vulnerable in a while.

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Remaining schedule: at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

Chances: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 4.4% | To win Super Bowl: 4.8%

The Steelers need every bit of their two-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens, as they have the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league (and the toughest among teams in the playoff field). With so much attention on AFC powers like the Chiefs and Bills, the Steelers have a chance to show how they’ve done over the past month.

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

Chances: To make the play-offs: 96% | To earn bye: 0.1% | To win Super Bowl: 4.2%

The Texans have a two-game lead and head-to-head tiebreaker over the Indianapolis Colts, so they’re still in good shape after spilling oil with four losses in the past seven games. But with a tough schedule on the schedule, the Texans might as well make the most of their bye week.

Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

Chances: To make playoffs: 95.3% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 4.7%

Lamar Jackson is trying to become the seventh player to win his third MVP Award, but he has bigger goals in mind. He is one of 10 multi-MVP winners in the Super Bowl era to never hoist the Lombardi Trophy. For what it’s worth, Jackson is 1-2 in the playoffs when he’s won the MVP and 1-2 in non-MVP seasons.

Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

Chances: To make the play-offs: 89.2%| To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 3%

The Chargers are changing the narrative this season, but they’re not over the hump yet. They were swept by the Chiefs for the third straight season and they are 1-4 against teams in the playoff field. The win came against the Denver Broncos, who are 1-5 against current playoff teams.

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

Chances: To make playoffs: 74.5% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.3%

The Broncos are averaging 36 points per outing over the past three games, but their opponents rank in the bottom third of the league in points allowed during that stretch. Give the Broncos credit for taking advantage of a weak schedule, but their postseason viability will be questionable.

• Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
• Miami Dolphins (6-7)
•Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)

Disabled

•Cleveland Browns (3-10)
•Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
• New York Jets (3-10)
• New England Patriots (3-10)
• Tennessee Titans (3-10)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

NFC Playoff Photo

Seed Team File Result week 14

x–1

12-1

W vs GB

x–2

11-2

W vs. CAR

3

8-5

W versus AZ

4

7-6

W vs LV

5

11-2

W vs. ATL

6

9-4

L versus DET

7

8-5

Bye

x — Achieved play-off berth | z — Achieved division title | * — Achieved #1 seed

Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

Chances: To reach play-offs: 100% | To earn bye: 60.5% | To win Super Bowl: 17.4%

With the best record in the league, the Lions have become accustomed to winning in virtually every situation. But consecutive wins by 3 points make it 4-0 in games decided by 3 points or less. They are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL, and they don’t panic in tense situations.

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Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

Chances: To reach play-offs: 100% | To earn bye: 32% | To win Super Bowl: 12.8%

Saquon Barkley has a legitimate case for MVP, but the Eagles’ schedule could work against him as they don’t have another primetime game, which is usually a useful showcase for the prestigious award.

Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

Chances: To make playoffs: 58.8% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2%

The Seahawks’ four-game winning streak is their longest since 2022, when they last made the playoffs, so they’ve rebounded well after dropping five of six. But even with the cushion in the NFC West, they have a lot of work to do with a challenging remaining schedule. They have the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night, and there’s certainly nothing strange happening when these teams meet under the lights.

Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

Chances: To make playoffs: 70.9% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.6%

The Bucs erased a four-game losing streak with three straight wins, and the Falcons are coming off a four-game losing streak of their own. The Bucs have a big game this week against the Chargers before taking on three opponents with losing records, so they have a chance to end the regular season on a seven-game winning streak.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

Chances: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 7.5% | To win Super Bowl: 5.7%

Justin Jefferson just caught his first touchdown pass since Week 7. Anyway, because the Vikings were 5-1 during that scoring drought, leaving that Week 18 visit to Detroit a potential primetime blockbuster. That outcome could be the difference between the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye or a playoff opener in Seattle or Tampa.

Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

Chances: To make playoffs: 95.7% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 5.4%

The Packers are a legitimate threat, as they showed in a tight loss to the Lions, but there are some concerns. They’re 5-3 in one-possession games, with those three losses adding up to 10 points, so they’re slightly better than coin tosses in tight games. And they are 1-4 against teams in the playoffs, with the only win coming at home against the Texans in Week 7. Those are tough trends to break for a team that will open the postseason on the road.

Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

Chances: To reach play-offs: 82.5% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.8%

The Commanders cling to the final wild card spot and have a huge matchup in two weeks against the Eagles, who are expected to be their playoff opponent. The Commanders are 0-4 against teams in the postseason picture, including a Week 11 loss at Philadelphia.

• Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
• Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
• Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
• New Orleans Saints (5-8)
• Dallas Cowboys (5-8)
•Chicago Bears (4-9)
• Carolina Panthers (3-10)

Disabled

• New York Giants (2-11)

(Photo of Baker Mayfield: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)